The Coming Long War

Always on the lookout for a pragmatic (if pessimistic) view of world events, I found this article from The Nation intriguing. Sample:

"Leading counterinsurgency theorist John Nagl, an Iraq combat veteran and now the head of the Center for a New American Security, writes that "there is a growing realization that the most likely conflicts of the next fifty years will be irregular warfare in an 'Arc of Instability' that encompasses much of the greater Middle East and parts of Africa and Central and South Asia."

Yikes.

Guatemala

Do you know what's happening in Guatemala? It all started five days ago when a scandalous video surfaced. In the video a prominent lawyer accuses the president and his personal secretary of plotting to have him killed. The tape, which was discovered two days after the lawyer's brutal murder, has sent the country into turmoil.

Perhaps the most interesting aspect of this crisis has been the MSM blackout and role of new media and social network sites in spreading the word and coordinating protests. boingboing has an excellent rundown of the sequence of events.

Remarkably, I can't find anything but relatively superficial snippets from Western news networks. Here's a sampling from NPR, the AP and the BBC.

Ventura Trumps Obama

All is not well in the universe . . .

"I will criticize President Obama on this level; it's a good thing I'm not president because I would prosecute every person that was involved in that torture. I would prosecute the people that did it. I would prosecute the people that ordered it. Because torture is against the law."

That's former Navy SEAL, professional wrestler and governor Jesse Ventura. Why is he making more sense than Obama?

Update: From the same interview (speaking on the topic of waterboarding):

"It's drowning. It gives you the complete sensation that you are drowning. It is no good, because you -- I'll put it to you this way, you give me a water board, Dick Cheney and one hour, and I'll have him confess to the Sharon Tate murders... "

Torture Memos: The Musical

The Obama Doctrine?

"I firmly believe that if we're willing to break free from the arguments and ideologies of an earlier era and continue to act, as we have at this summit, with a sense of mutual responsibility and mutual respect and mutual interest, then each of our nations can come out of this challenging period stronger and more prosperous, and we can advance opportunity, equality, and security across the Americas."

Easier said than done.

Homing in on the Real Torture Debate

The United States government waterboarded Khalid Shaikh Mohammed 183 times. They waterboarded Abu Zubaydah 83 times.

There are plenty of ways, many idiotic, to dance around the torture issue and few interest me. (The least interesting may be whether the US "tortured" or simply used "enhanced interrogation techniques.") What I keep returning to is how counterproductive this is in terms of American interests. For all the good it does to see and hear someone like Barack Hussein Obama at the helm, these stories more than mitigigate the positives by promoting extremism and anti-Americanism, both abroad and domestically.

Ch-arrrgh-t of the Day

(thanks Turner)

Piracy and Economic Localization

Piracy is on the rise (see here, here and here for more.) Not only do these attacks capture the imagination, they also offer an opportunity for some Tom Friedman-esque analysis. As one might expect, shipping insurance is more expensive these days. Shippers are even hiring security consultants, and I doubt it will take long for some companies to start adding professional muscle to vessels traveling certain routes. Obviously, all this requires substantial investment, and, as is always the case, these costs are passed along to the consumer.

Here's the other angle: that broccoli that was grown in the county next door, it's not getting hijacked by pirates on the way to the local farmer's market.

Eating local has plenty of environmental, economic and health-related benefits. I say we add diminished risk of pirate attack to the list. Plus, looks like the price gap between mass-produced food and the local stuff just narrowed.

North Korea's Failed Test

Everything I've read about North Korea indicates that it's years away from being able to detonate a nuclear weapon in the Western Hemisphere. Therefore, I wasn't all that tuned into its recent missile test. However, as a friend points out, I'm ignoring the bigger picture: the real fear is a North Korean/Iranian alliance.

With North Korea supplying the rocket and Iran supplying the payload, North Korea's test launch seems much, well, scarier. Fortunately, it was a failure.

In context, Obama's recent European tour is all the more encouraging, as the long-absent pragmatism he championed on the campaign trail seems to be making a comeback. Let's hope this is just the beginning, and that Wall Street is next on his agenda.

For the record, I predict that the President's speech in Prague will come to be regarded as a seminal piece of American foreign policy.