Start the Witch Hunt

Working in finance, I have become very familiar with the concept of benchmark performance. Because it's how folks keep score in finance, benchmark performance has tangible consequences. Moreover, with just about everyone in the business losing money, it still carries weight (unlike your 401k).

Here's the point: the current downturn, the whole debacle, is about people losing perspective. Benchmark performance epitomizes institutionalized relativism, the rationale being, "as long as I am doing better than the other guy, I am winning." Relativism obstructs the bigger picture, preventing individuals from looking beyond the immediate gain (ie, higher interest rates from structured investment vehicles) and recognizing risks (ie, that you shouldn't loan money to people who can't prove income or have no tangible assets.)

Far be it from me to assign blame for this mess. Bankers, clearly, suck. People who took out loans made a gamble and lost. I don't know how aware they were that they were gambling, but that doesn't really change things. The rest of us, well, we're all paying for it. As long as we're mulling all this over, why not talk about the real culprit: relativism. We need big picture people in charge, otherwise everyone gets screwed. Hopefully, we can get it right next time.

Even Secessionism Is Bigger in Texas

Back in late 2008, Russian scholar Igor Panarin made waves when he predicted the United States would collapse by 2010. From the WSJ:

"California will form the nucleus of what he calls "The Californian Republic," and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas will be the heart of "The Texas Republic," a cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and New York will be part of an "Atlantic America" that may join the European Union. Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls "The Central North American Republic." Hawaii, he suggests, will be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia."

A recent DailyKos poll lends some credibility to Panarin's hypothesis. From MSNBC's First Read:

"A healthy minority of Texans -- as well as a majority of Texas Republicans -- say they want to secede from the union. According to a new DailyKos/Research 2000 poll, 37% of Texans and 51% of Lone Star Republicans agree with Gov. Rick Perry’s recent suggestion that Texas may need to leave the United States."

What's in store for California?

What's Next?

I don't think I've ever been so intrigued by the conservative movement as I am now, mostly because it's in shambles. I think its fairly obvious that the pendulum is swinging left, and I'm mostly happy about it. However, what goes up must come down, and the right is in the process of crowning its next heir. Schmidt might officially be in the running. Me likey:

"If you put public policy issues to a religious test, you risk becoming a religious party," he said. "And in a free country a political party cannot be viable in the long-term if it is seen as a sectarian party."

(thanks Mike)

Banking on Change

"When the developed world gets over its bias for "printing press–era cash technology" then complementary currencies will be commonplace here too, Rushkoff predicts. He sees a future that has people literally reprogramming their economic systems, using computer networks and handheld devices to administer new forms of grassroots cash. Those currencies could be almost anything: Cash we can use only at one local restaurant, cash cards for Wal-Mart or other chain stores, babysitting dollars we can trade in our neighborhoods."

Nokia is already trying to accomodate changes like this, given the use of prepaid minutes as currency in Africa. (Needing to transfer money to family members over long distances, consumers in the developing world load their cell phones with prepaid minutes. They subsequently transfer these minutes to another device owned by a friend, family or broker who in turn exchanges them for currency, goods or services. Nokia is creating mobile software that makes this process easier to accomplish and record.)

Taking a macro view of human history, the concept of currency is a constant. The form, however, has changed in numerous ways. Thinkers like Rushkoff are forging ahead, making educated guesses at the world of tomorrow. I think he's on the right track. I would note that the article specifies that the developed world is behind the curve. Nokia clearly isn't.